Poll data are gleaned from pollingreport.com. The graph is updated as data become available.
NOTE 10/11/2004: Some polls have turned into "rolling polls" reporting multi-day averages. A new plot point will be placed on this graph each time the results reflect a completely new sample. For instance, the Washington Post reports a daily average of the previous three days of polling - a new plot point will be added here every three days. All results from national daily polls are charted on this graph, which also includes Rasmussen.
The numbers graphed represent the difference between the percentage of people indicating they will vote for John Kerry and those indicating they will vote for George Bush. When choosing what results to use when a pollster reports more than one set of percentages the following rules were applied:
- Head to head results were favored over results from questions that allowed the choice of other candidates
- Results from "likely voters" were favored over "registered voters"
- Results without "leaners" were favored over those that included leaners
That is not to say that the results to different questions or from different groups are plotted as a pollster's trend - rather that those were the criteria used to determine which result to plot.
In order to have been included, the pollster must,
- have begun conducting a poll during or before the 2004 Democratic National Convention,
- have conducted a poll between the 2004 Democratic National Convention and 2004 Republican National Convention, and
- publicly publish their results.
The above graph requires the Flash 6 Player. If you don't have it, you are also sick of being told where to get it, so you will not be plagued again with information on how to get it.
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